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Drama, heart, blood and tears will crown a new champion in Japan! By Eduardo Alonso Sixteen fighters began in April a battle to reign supreme among the heavyweight division in one of the most prestigious Mixed Martial Arts event in the planet, and now as the month of August shows its presence only four men, plus two alternate fighters, still live the dream of becoming the 2004 Pride Heavyweight Grand Prix champion. Fans have been waiting for this clash of titans for a long time, and although destiny presented some different names than some would expect in the final four, the whole MMA community in the globe has their eyes set to Tokyo, Japan this next weekend. Amazingly enough, this coming Pride show has more than the GP finals to offer, keeping the Japanese organization trend to develop one solid card after the other. As Emelianenko Fedor, Rodrigo Minotauro, Sergei Kharitonov and Naoya Ogawa, plus alternate fighters Kevin Randleman and Ron Waterman try their skills and conditioning to win the Grand Prix belt, the rest of the card will show fans favorites such as Wanderlei Silva, Yuki Kondo, Mirko Cro Cop and Murilo Bustamante gracing the ring with their respective fighting styles making it for what can very well be an unforgettable evening in the land of the rising sun. One thing that can be clearly noticed is that Pride has been somewhat spoiling fans, as in the past a card with half of the names included on this one would be a reason for massive celebration by enthusiasts of our sport worldwide. However, with the evolution of our sport and the amazing levels it is achieving in Japan, we can enjoy some of our dreams come true, such as tournaments with top-notch names plus single matches with some of the best fighters out there. With that in mind, and considering the huge interest created for this weekend's Pride show, we decided to run a very small preview on the coming bouts, following the footsteps of other fellow MMA writers, but in a more compact version. It's always somewhat risky or intriguing to write previews, as truly anything can happen in a fight and the writer can end up looking like a fool after the show, however it's always fun to try to exercise some logic and shoot your opinions, so let's not wait anymore and jump to the single fights on the card! Murilo Bustamante vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura: Training under Japanese star Hidehiko Yoshida, Kazuhiro Nakamura is slowly gaining his space in the hearts of his birthplace fans by showing notable improvements in his MMA game during the course of his career. His second losing effort to Bustamante's teammate Rogerio Nogueira showed a drastic improvement from his fist loss to Minotauro's twin brother, as the Judo fighter has been developing better stand up skills and more ring experience. With that said, he is still far from being a top fighter on his division, and took this fight in somewhat short notice, what likely tells he isn't as prepared as he would like to be. I don't see much that he can do to beat Murilo, unless it's on a judges' decision in a somewhat boring fight, or by connecting a unexpected strike that results in a KO, with this chance looking very slim. The key for his win may be controlling the clinch, what he can likely do, and trying to stall the fight. Murilo Bustamante on the other hand is one of the most technical ground fighters you'll ever see. Not only that, but he has very decent Boxing skills to go along with his ground greatness. At the Brazilian Top Team headquarters Bustamante is likely the most admired fighter by the young fighters there, mostly due to his amazing ground style, that wasn't seen at its full capacity in MMA yet. After some impressive bouts on the UFC, Murilo had a bit of bad luck in Pride, and faced some of the toughest opponents he could've. This is his best shot to show what he can do in the Pride ring, and guarantee a new contract that can mean the rematches he so badly wants. At 38 years old, he isn't getting any younger and knows he can't waste opportunities such as this one. The only weak part of his game is his kicks and kicks defense, however this is not something where I see Nakamura taking advantage of. I believe the Brazilian fighter can both submit or score a TKO against the Japanese fighter with little problem, and the more open the fight gets, the better for Murilo. Emelianenko Aleksander vs. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic: Being a brother of Pride Heavyweight champion Emelianenko Fedor certainly opened doors for Emelianenko Aleksander, but it certainly created a lot of pressure on his shoulders to perform at high level. So far in his bouts, he didn't show anywhere near the skills of his brother, and although he clearly has potential I think it's likely too early for him to face someone of Cro Cop's caliber. Aleksander's best weapons are his absurd strength and power, his huge size and his likely ability to take a beating. However, his ground skills didn't prove to be good enough, and this could possibly be his easiest way to defeat Mirko, taking advantage of his weight and power. Even though he can likely take some punishment, Cro Cop is precise and can be lethal, so I don't see him benefiting from a striking contest with the Croatian, unless luck is on his side. In the future this man will present all fighters a lot of trouble, but he needs to improve his conditioning, ground game and get more experience to become a top dog. Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic is no stranger to Pride and a fan favorite. I don't need to spend a lot of words in telling readers what his strengths and weaknesses are, as everybody knows his ground game lacks a lot, and his striking skills are great. Mirko has been working on improving his ground skills, but this takes time, and when things get hot he will certainly appeal to his instincts. One big question mark regarding Filipovic though, is his heart. Numerous fighters have told me he doesn't like things when a match is not going his way, and this is where Aleksander can frustrate him. On the other hand, coming from not so impressive outings recently, including a surprising KO loss to Kevin Randleman, Cro Cop knows his stock is not rising, and he needs to win convincingly against Fedor's brother, otherwise what would he do to Fedor himself? If the Croatian striker keeps himself calm during the fight and walks properly in the ring, as he always do, I see him connecting good strikes on his way to a KO win, as precision and speed are on his side on this one, and I don't see him getting submitted by Aleksander's not so impressive ground game. Yuki Kondo vs. Wanderlei Silva: Even though he has a long and great career, a win over Wanderlei Silva would do wonders for Yuki Kondo, and although he is a very composed fighter this thoughts most certainly crossed his mind. Experiencing an even bigger popularity than ever in Japan, and improving every year as a fighter, Kondo is peaking and reaching star status in Pride is something that shoots a fighter to a new level. Being a competitor by nature, Yuki likes to fight the best, and Silva right now means the perfect challenge for all the reasons mentioned above. However, in the same time that I see Kondo being one of the most interesting challenges to the "Axe Murderer" in recent times, I also see very little chance of winning for the Japanese fighter. If this fight turns into a striking battle, as it's likely to become, Kondo surely has his fair chance of connecting with some solid strikes, but I see Silva's chin as underrated, and I believe that the Brazilian fighter rises under those occasions and shows the better of his game when a tough task appears in front of him. Plus, I don't see KO power in Kondo's strikes usually, therefore this may be a tough match for him. Although he also has good ground skills, I think he will even have problems in taking Wanderlei down, let alone submitting him. As he said in some interviews, I also believe his best shot is by connecting with the perfect strike during exchanges, but fortunately for us fans I think this one is going to be exciting no matter the outcome. It's tough to say something about Wanderlei Silva that hasn't already been said yet, and is no secret to most FCF's readers that he is a friend. With that said, I really believe that if you take a closer look to Silva's career over the last few years, his game is becoming more and more solid and he is turning into a very smart fighter, learning how to use his aggressiveness on the right moments, and exploit his opponent's weakness. This is where I think Yuki Kondo's biggest problems begins, as I don't see Wanderlei as a wild crazy brawler anymore, and this makes difficult for Kondo to exploit holes and connect with the so hoped perfect strike. Another interesting aspect is that "The Axe Murderer" now usually cuts from around 220 pounds, and will have a notable power advantage over the Japanese fighter. One day, sooner or later, someone will defeat Wanderlei Silva in the Pride ring, but I don't think this is the time or Yuki Kondo is the guy to do it. From what I know from the Pride Middleweight champion, this one is going to be a stand up war at least for the most part, and I see Silva scoring the knockout either with a solid punch, or trough his famous knee strikes from the clinch. As I already said, whatever happens the fans wins on this one. Pride Heavyweight Grand Prix alternate match: Kevin Randleman vs. Ron Waterman: A veteran of shows such as UFC, IFC and even Pride itself, Ron Waterman is already experienced in the MMA game. However, he will be fighting someone way more experienced than him, and highly motivated by a recent career success. Kevin Randleman's career saw fights against some of the very best fighters the world can offer both as heavyweights and light heavyweights, while Waterman spent a lot of time with little action, and didn't show much improvement on his game lately, other than a bit better submission work. Waterman's usual advantage over opponents is his power and wrestling, and Randleman is a bad match-up for him, as "The Monster" is a very good wrestler himself, and is clearly more explosive, not to mention younger than Ron. If Waterman manages to take Kevin down and work from the top, he has his chances either on a stalled fight or by a tight submission from the top, however the odds are not good that this will happen, as the longer the fight goes on, the worst the scenario gets for "H2O" man. For his part, Kevin Randleman has been showing a high level of motivation lately, with his good performances in Pride, and mostly his astonishing win over Mirko Cro Cop by KO in this very same tournament. Randleman is an explosive and agile fighter that is known for hitting hard and with a very solid wrestling game, plus a not so bad conditioning for a man of his size. This, as I said before, puts Ron Waterman in a terrible spot, as Kevin prevails on Ron's strongest points. His lack of submission knowledge may be a way to lose the fight, however this is not something where Waterman impresses, plus this fight can mean a comfortable stand up fight for Kevin, and I see him exploiting that. With an experience of facing guys such as Randy Couture, Emelianenko Fedor, Murilo Ninja, Mirko Cro Cop, Pedro Rizzo and many other great ones, I don't see Ron Waterman as a challenge for Randleman, as he can win both by KO standing on TKO trough ground and pound on this one. Pride Heavyweight Grand Prix Semi Finals: Emelianenko Fedor vs. Nayoa Ogawa: It's no secret that Naoya Ogawa is a Japanese pro wrestler, and although amazingly Sakuraba shares the same past, there's a big difference between those two. By all means, Ogawa continues to work as a pro wrestler, and often seems way more interested in his pro wrestling gigs than in his MMA career. Although he has a very impressive history in Judo, his MMA fights are somewhat suspicious, and I would rather not comment on that due to my strong opinions about it. As he is extremely famous in Japan and means a lot of tickets sold, it was natural that Pride wanted him to reach this stage of the Grand Prix badly, and if he really steps up to fight Emelianenko Fedor in a true fight, at least a lot of questions will be answered. Theoretically his biggest chance would be by fighting from the top and controlling the fight on the ground, well, I honestly don't give him any chance in a true fight, and a can't even imagine him trading strikes with Fedor, so we'll have to wait and see how it unfolds and who was ready about his past fights in Pride. Pride Heavyweight champion and likely the most feared fighter at his division nowadays, Emelianenko Fedor has been beating his competition in many different manners, and is still the only one to defeated other GP favorite Rodrigo Minotauro in Pride competition. At first the Russian fighter was winning his fights on his pure power and toughness, but lately he has been showing some quick and impressive submission skills, as well as some extra toughness as he displayed after being slammed by Kevin Randleman recently. Not only I believe he will run trough Ogawa using his very heavy hands, this match-up will likely give him a welcomed advantage advancing into the finals, to face a probably damaged Minotauro or Kharitonov. Personally I eager await to see Fedor in the final, where he will likely meet serious competition, and if any of my beliefs were right a KO win is his destiny against the Japanese fighter. Hopefully I'll be proven wrong, cause then we'll end seeing and even better show, time will tell. Rodrigo "Minotauro" Nogueira vs. Sergei Kharitonov: A ground fighting master, Rodrigo Minotauro Nogueira has been amazing fans all over the globe one time after the other in recent years, basically defeating everyone Pride has put in front of him in impressive fashion, with the exception being Russian fighter Emelianenko Fedor, and this is probably what makes this GP so special, and what makes all fans to hope for a final match between those two, in what would be like the perfect ending for such an amazing event. However, Nogueira has to defeated another Russian in Kharitonov first, and make no mistake about it, this is no easy task! One thing Minotauro has been improving a lot in his game lately is his Boxing skills. The way he has been walking on the ring, and how well he has been able to work with his distance, goes to show his Boxing is really evolving, however he still lacks KO power, and this is where exchanging strikes with Sergei can mean problem, as the Russian hits hard and has a great chin. The area where Minotauro could likely use as the difference in this bout would be his wrestling, as I feel that landing on top of the Russian would mean victory for the Brazilian Top Team member. However, this has not being one of Mino's greatest abilities, as he believes so much in his jiu-jitsu from the bottom that his wrestling didn't evolve as much as it could've. Also, Kharitonov has an interesting Judo background, and I believe Minotauro's style can see a lot of problems in facing Kharitonov. This has the tools to be the best fight of the show, as both fighters have great heart, can take punishment, have good stand up skills are about the same size. What can, and most likely will make the difference in my opinion are Nogueira's superior ground skills, and I feel he will end up winning by submission, however he can't underestimate the Russian's hands, cause his toughness plus his punches makes me also give Kharitonov a decent shot at winning. As I mentioned a lot of times above, Sergei Kharitonov from Russia is a fighter that we will likely hear a lot about in the future, due to his amazing toughness and heavy hands, that goes along a decent ground game and very good reach. In his fights against Murilo Ninja and Semmy Schilt, both on this same tournament, Sergei showed everybody he can take solid punches, and he has a big heart. Both Ninja and Schilt hit him with some pretty good shots to his face, and they couldn't get even near the stage to put Kharitonov out. On the other hand, the Russian's heavy hands made all those guys pay, as he compensate his not so techincal Boxing game with a very solid and powerful punch, that has lots of KO power behind it. This may be the key for a possible win for him, as Minotauro likes to exchange strikes and can occasionally be hit by some good shots, which can create a world of problems to him later on. Also, due to Kharitonov's strong base, I don't see him landing with Nogueira on top very often, and I also don't see him working a lot inside Minotauro's guard, as he likely studied his opponent's game. This is what makes this fight so intriguing! I still give the edge to Mino, as his ground skills are too superior, however, I don't see him getting in position to apply one of his ground techniques easily, and I see ways for him to fall victim of Sergei's strengths, such as his punches. One thing is certain, it's going to be a battle and if Fedor walks trough Ogawa as expected, he is smiling all the way in knowing he will likely get a wounded opponent for the finals. Well, with all those aspects in all those fighters' games analyzed in this preview, it gets easier to imagine what can happen in any of the possible final match-ups of the Grand Prix, although other factors such as injuries, conditioning and the likes can add a lot to the drama, maybe even brining the alternate winner out to fight, making it better not to write about all the possible finals. One thing is certain though, this show is brining some of the very best talent level any show has put inside a ring on one night in a long time, and despite what happens, we'll all be talking about this show in years and years to come. So, take my advice and don't miss the fights, 'cause history is going to be written in Tokyo this weekend! |
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